Awami League Seeks Political Comeback on Wave of Public Anger; How Prepared Is the BNP?

Said Ahmed

The people of the country are not at ease. Prices keep rising. Inflation is high. Law and order has become worse. Unemployment is growing and factories are closing down. People feel unsafe on the roads. Some people in responsible posts worship India. There is sympathy and shelter for the Awami League, which committed mass killings. There is delay in carrying out the verdict of the International Crimes Tribunal.

The people who ruled badly and looted freely for one and a half decades have not been brought to justice. Ms. Sheikh Hasina’s helpers are still sitting in the military and civil bureaucracy. People who suffered under Ms. Hasina are being pushed aside. Leaders and workers who have done BNP politics for generations and suffered Ms. Hasina’s oppression are not valued. Land grabbers and extortionists are a nuisance. The government is also slow to take correct decisions in geopolitics.

These are the reasons for the discomfort, and the discomfort is quickly turning into dissatisfaction. Those who voted for BNP blindly in the 13th national election now look sad because of various actions. The government has an absolute majority, but 8 months and 15 days into its term, the banned Awami League of Ms. Sheikh Hasina is getting ready to use this public anger as fuel. Ms. Hasina has been sentenced to death for mass killings.

The party is banned by an executive order, but it is fully active through many channels, spreading the poison of public anger against the government. We have no reason to think the banned party has been wiped out because of light arrest drives. The big question now is whether the ruling BNP is able to stop the Awami League, which is desperate to return in many forms.

Is the unity that was seen in the movement against the Awami League for one and a half decades, and later in the July uprising of 2024, still in the party? Or do they think that goal was “achieved” by coming to power?

Political analysts do not think so. They say the Awami League is the permanent opponent of the political ideology created by Shaheed Zia. BNP should not forget this opponent even for a moment. They say the Awami League is not a “political ideology”. It shows the mental state of a class of people. These people killed hundreds of students and citizens in the July uprising of 2024 and feel no regret.

From its start, they have thought of “politics” as running the red horse of killing, enforced disappearance, murder and torture over political opponents. Only mentally sick and knowingly guilty people can follow such a party blindly. Begum Khaleda Zia, leader of the nation, was the one who recognised an Awami League of this character. Is the present leadership recognising it?

On paper the Awami League is “banned”. In reality, Awami activity is always active. It would be a serious foolishness to look for the “end” of the Awami League by arresting a few people who come out into the lanes to march for the fugitive Ms. Hasina for Tk 5,000.

Even well wishers of the ruling BNP say the roots of the Awami poison tree go very deep. They say these people dropped the Mujib coat, changed their look and stayed inside the government. India friendly Awami Leaguers are active everywhere, in the civil bureaucracy, military officers, law enforcement agencies and in the dress of “businessmen”. They are now waiting for the right time.

They are waiting for a perfect moment. This “moment” can come from any crisis. The country is struggling in a sea of crisis. In the capital, in villages, in markets, in salons and in restaurants, people sing the same tune: “We were better before!” It is a simple but terrible sentence.

People seem to have forgotten the free looting in the name of projects, the looting of depositors’ money from private banks in the name of loans, the spending of foreign currency reserves on needless purchases, the growing burden of debt on citizens, the enforced disappearances, the murders and the killing of hundreds and thousands of people.

People are saying this most unwelcome sentence so quickly because the government could not hold back the economic pressure on daily life, unemployment, insecurity and corruption. Yet not all of them are Awami Leaguers at heart. But the anger born from their daily money trouble and suffering can make the return of the Awami League to politics unavoidable. The anger of ordinary people may bring back “Sheikh Hasina” and the “Awami League”.

Analysts say the Awami League has no equal in making a non issue into an “issue” and in using people’s anger to fill the sails of its own politics. People clearly remember how the Awami League created issues when BNP was in power in the past. They remember how it took Jamaat, which claimed to be against India, along with it and shook the BNP government. Why should we think that cannot happen again?

All people in the country suffer from price inflation and money inflation. The crisis has touched everyone equally, not only garment workers. Yet garment workers come out on the streets from time to time for “fair wages” and pay and allowances. We should not see this with a plain eye. The Awami League may grab the chance to create chaos in the garment sector.

One strategy of the Hasina government was not to let working class people get angry. If they did get angry, it crushed them with cruelty. A government elected by people’s direct votes cannot be as cruel as Ms. Hasina, and it is not desirable either. But it is wise to stay alert. It is easy to bring working people quickly onto the streets to create chaos. Indian intelligence agency RAW and Ms. Hasina know this trick well. We must not give them this chance.

Prices are rising because of the power and energy crisis. This has made life hard for ordinary people. Extortion, snatching, land grabbing, robbery and murder have also been added. Analysts say political opponents can make issues out of these unwanted events. We must not forget how the then opposition Awami League made the murder of the teenager Yasmin in Dinajpur in 1995 a national issue.

BNP should also clearly remember the chaos the Awami League created on 5 May 2006 in Shanirakhra in the capital, using the power and water crisis as an issue. In January of the same year, the Awami League also made an issue of the ordinary people’s movement for electricity in Kansat, Rajshahi. It used the anger of peaceful ordinary people to create a violent situation and gain mileage.

These events happened in the recent past. The Awami League was behind them. Thinking people of the nationalist side say it is not impossible for the Awami League, now out of sight for the moment, to create such a situation again from any issue.

Lakhs of battery powered rickshaws are on the roads in the name of “unemployment”. Ninety percent of them are not real rickshaw pullers. They do not know the roads of Dhaka. Their behaviour and stubbornness show “Awami style”. All the main roads of the capital are now in the grip of battery rickshaw drivers. In villages, many farmers are leaving farming because of a shortage of farm labour. But in the capital, battery rickshaws are rising like a flood. What does this show? Has BNP thought about the matter from this point of view even once?

Several intelligence reports also say these people are only workers of the banned Awami League, Chhatra League and Jubo League, hiding behind the work of battery rickshaw drivers. The presence of this large Awami group on the roads in the cover of rickshaw drivers is politically terrible. Ms. Hasina’s return to the country in December may be a “daydream”, but this class is quite energised. It will not take a moment to create chaos in the capital on any excuse.

Analysts say the large presence of this accident prone vehicle on the roads is politically dangerous. If they create chaos in Dhaka, what will the government do? How ready is the government’s party, BNP, to face Awami conspiracy and chaos? BNP has no leadership in the capital. Mr. Mirza Abbas, an influential BNP leader in the transport sector, is now inactive because of illness.

Mr. Salahuddin Ahmed, former MP of Dhaka South (Dhaka 4 and 5) and a BNP leader, has died. BNP leader Mr. Nabiullah Nabi has become mostly inactive after losing in the 13th parliamentary election. A Jamaat MP now holds these two BNP seats (Dhaka 4 and 5). Mr. Amanullah Aman, the well known student leader against Ershad in the nineties, was elected MP but was not made a minister. Mr. Goyeshwar Chandra Roy was not made a minister either.

Joint Secretary General of the party Mr. Habib un Nabi Khan Sohel was not even given a nomination for MP. Ms. Ferdousi Ahmed Mishti, sister of the sacrificing BNP leader Mr. Nasir Uddin Ahmed Pintu, has resigned. Old Dhaka Jubo Dal leader Mr. Md. Ishaq Sarkar has been expelled from the party. Mr. Abu Bakar Siddique Saju, son of Mr. S S Khalek, a leader elected several times on a BNP nomination, was not given a nomination for MP.

That seat is now in Jamaat’s grip. For good reason, he is inactive. BNP leader Mr. Saiful Alam Nirob has become mostly silent in politics. This seat is also held by Jamaat. Mr. Nazim Uddin Alam, a former student leader and a several time elected MP, was not given a nomination. Mr. Asaduzzaman Ripon and Mr. Shamsuzzaman Dudu were not valued.

Supreme Court Bar president Barrister Mr. Mahbub Uddin Khokon kept nationalist politics alive when the whole professional sector was in Awami grip in the Awami period. He was elected MP but was not made a minister. In the same way, Senior Advocate Mr. Zainul Abedin was elected MP but was not given a ministry. Former BNP MP Mr. Syed Moazzem Hossain Alal was not even given a BNP nomination. There are many such central leaders worth naming.

They suffered jail and oppression under the Awami misrule. They went onto the streets with great energy along with their followers and workers. Will the followers and workers of these leaders now risk their lives on the streets for BNP if needed?

This question is for those who want to see the BNP led government in power despite thousands of criticisms. This class of critics has always wished BNP well. Even if they get nothing themselves, they love the party and want to see BNP in power. Because they love BNP, they want to send a warning message to the government.

Their view is that the ruling BNP does not have enough strength to face politically the large number of Awami League and Jubo League workers who are present everywhere in many identities and forms. They say the capital Dhaka now lacks a leadership that is friendly to workers. Sacrificing leaders and workers are either pushed aside or have withdrawn into themselves with deep hurt and dissatisfaction.

They also think BNP must stay in the field with preparation to face politically any attempt by the Awami League to be restored in politics in any form. This government must not fail at any cost. If the government fails, all leaders and workers will have to suffer the result.

Whether it is because of the government’s liberal policy or because of some other weakness, if Ms. Hasina’s Awami League finds a place in politics again, not only the July uprising will fail. The whole nation will have to pay a heavy price. So the question comes up: how ready is BNP politically to face the Awami League, which is banned on the surface but hiding among the crowd of working people?

Will those undervalued, inactive and tested leaders and workers go back onto the streets in such a situation? Or why would they?