Netanyahu Coalition Facing Defeat in Israeli Elections

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious coalition is on track for defeat in what is being described as one of the most critical elections in Israel’s history.

Exit polls released by three major television channels following the end of voting at 10:00 PM on Tuesday indicate a clear defeat for Netanyahu’s bloc. The coalition trails behind the opposition alliance led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, leaving Mr. Netanyahu with no path to secure a majority on his own.
This marks the first general election in Israel since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks. While Netanyahu’s Likud party is projected to remain the single largest party, the coalition remains well short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government, making it difficult for Netanyahu to retain power.

Exit polls from public broadcaster Kan alongside Channel 12 and Channel 13 project Netanyahu’s right-wing and ultra-religious bloc to win 50 seats in the 120-member Knesset, down from their previous 68 seats.
The centrist opposition coalition led by Eisenkot is projected to secure 52 to 53 seats. Meanwhile, the Arab alliance Joint List and the Ra’am party are expected to win a combined 17 to 18 seats. Following the exit poll projections, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid stated: “Let no one confuse you: Netanyahu’s bloc has suffered a crushing defeat. It has completely collapsed, and the public has told them to go home.”

Among other parties, the leftist Democrats are projected to win 10 seats, while Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu is expected to get 8 seats. The far-right Otzma Yehudit is projected to win 7 seats. The ultra-Orthodox religious parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, along with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, are expected to secure 6 seats each.

Once all votes are tallied, President Isaac Herzog will consult with representatives of the various parties before tasking the leader he deems best positioned to build a viable governing coalition.
The absence of a clear winner was widely anticipated. In this scenario, both Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Eisenkot may claim victory and approach President Herzog to request the first opportunity to form a government Mr. Netanyahu as leader of the largest single party, and Eisenkot as leader of the largest bloc.
Mr. Netanyahu may receive the initial invitation to form a government as head of the largest party, leading to intense coalition negotiations in the coming days and weeks. However, if neither side can assemble a 61-seat majority, Israel could face another general election within months.