China Narrows Military Gap With US at Unprecedented Pace

China’s military has made extraordinary advances in modernisation over the past decade, narrowing the gap with the United States at an accelerating pace. The scale, scope and potential impact of these developments could be unprecedented in modern military history, according to Lyle Goldstein, a senior researcher at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs and director of the Asia engagement programme at a defence-focused organisation. Goldstein said China had long declared its ambition to build a world-class military and had now clearly reached that stage. The areas in which the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has achieved this status are expanding every day. He compared the transformation to “an aircraft taking off at full speed” or “a car shifting into fourth gear.”

China’s military capabilities should not be judged solely against the PLA’s 2027 target, which coincides with the centenary of its founding. Goldstein said it was clear that China would be “much, much more powerful” by 2037. At the same time, he noted that the transformation was still ongoing and that some programmes had yet to reach full maturity. One of the most notable developments is China’s aircraft carrier programme. Recent assessments also highlight the scale of the transformation. According to a 2026 Congressional Research Service review, the Chinese navy has nearly 320 ships, making it the world’s largest by number. The US Department of Defense says Beijing is moving toward integrated mechanisation, informatization and intelligentisation of its military capabilities by 2027, with the broader goal of completing military modernisation by 2035.

The shift in the military balance between China and other countries is becoming increasingly visible across the Indo-Pacific. Goldstein said growing military disparities were also creating regional concerns, particularly as US dominance was relatively declining while China’s influence was expanding. He said there was clear concern about where the region was heading. Several changes in Washington’s military posture have further highlighted the changing strategic environment. The US decision to shift the USS George Washington toward the Middle East has reduced the presence of American aircraft carriers in the western Pacific. This shows how the concentration of US military commitments in different regions can create opportunities for China to expand its growing regional influence. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for continued progress toward achieving the PLA’s 2027 centenary goals, further strengthening Beijing’s efforts to modernise its military through technology.