Climate Change Puts Food Security Under Growing Pressure

By Al Shaharia

In the final week of April, farmers in Sunamganj’s haor wetlands were preparing to harvest their Boro rice when flash floods from upstream and persistent rain submerged nearly 46,000 hectares of Boro farmland in Sunamganj and surrounding areas. The incident immediately raised fears of a shortfall of nearly 200,000 metric tonnes in national rice production.

The event may appear isolated, but it reflects a broader pattern when viewed alongside the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, jointly published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Food Programme. According to the report, around 16 million people in Bangladesh experienced crisis-level or worse food insecurity in 2025. Bangladesh is not facing famine and is not among the countries with the world’s most severe food crises. Yet it remains among the top 10 countries in terms of the number of people experiencing acute food insecurity.

The context behind this figure is even more concerning. The report says the situation improved somewhat in 2025 compared with 2024, with 7.6 million people moving out of the crisis category. The absence of major disasters, some easing of food-price inflation and increased remittance flows contributed to this improvement. Yet even in a relatively favorable year without a major disaster, Bangladesh remained among the world’s top 10. This indicates that the problem is not simply about floods or cyclones. Its roots lie deeper– in unstable incomes, weak purchasing power and structural vulnerabilities linked to climate change.

Climate change is a central part of this vulnerability, as reflected in this year’s unusual rainfall pattern. Bangladesh received 75 percent more rainfall than normal in April, the highest level in five years. In June, the situation reversed, with rainfall 29 percent below normal– the lowest in seven years– directly affecting Aman rice seedbed preparation. Rainfall increased again in July, reaching 35.6 percent above normal.

These contrasting conditions within a single year are not simply coincidences. The El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific has contributed, but it cannot fully explain the changing pattern. Rather, El Niño appears to have intensified a longer-term shift. A 34-year analysis published in PLOS Climate indicates that monsoon rainfall is declining in central and northern Bangladesh while the number of consecutive rainy days is increasing.

Such abnormal weather patterns are putting farmers at direct risk. According to research published in the Journal of Water and Climate Change, irregular rainfall in northwestern Bangladesh has made it difficult for farmers to determine appropriate planting and harvesting times. As a result, rice yields have declined by 17–18 percent and wheat yields by 31–68%. Rising temperatures could make the situation worse, with a recent review warning that Boro rice yields could fall by as much as 32 percent.

Coastal areas face an additional layer of risk. In parts of Khulna and Satkhira, soil salinity has reached as high as 40 decisiemens per meter. The coastal region accounts for around 30 percent of the country’s land area. Repeated intrusion of saline water caused by cyclones, river erosion and weak embankments is gradually degrading fertile soil. Farmers are being squeezed from both sides: irrigation-water shortages during the dry season and sudden flooding during the monsoon.

Declining agricultural output eventually affects food prices. Following prolonged rainfall in July, prices of vegetables such as eggplant, bitter gourd and green chilli rose sharply in Dhaka markets within a week, in some cases approaching double their previous levels. Rice prices also remained unstable, increasing by Tk 2–4 per kilogram even before the Boro season had ended. The burden falls hardest on low-income households that have little ability to absorb higher food costs.

Food security should therefore not be viewed solely as a question of production. Bangladesh has made considerable progress in rice production, yet people can still go hungry because the issue is no longer simply whether enough rice exists, but whether every household can afford to buy it.

For policymakers, this means social protection programmes need to become faster and more targeted so that assistance reaches vulnerable families immediately when prices rise or disasters strike. Many programmes currently operate separately, targeting remains weak and administrative processes are slow. Digital databases could improve targeting, but only if they are regularly updated and kept free from political influence.

Market management also requires greater transparency. Weak competition, hoarding and information gaps can amplify price increases. Government stock management, timely imports when necessary and transparent market information must work together. Otherwise, farmers may fail to receive fair prices while consumers remain exposed to excessive costs.

Perhaps the most important change is a shift in perspective. Flood control, salinity management, climate-resilient seeds, crop insurance, storage facilities and early-warning systems should not be treated as separate development projects. They must be integrated into national food-security policy.

Climate adaptation and food policy are no longer two separate agendas; they are two sides of the same crisis. Changing rainfall patterns and advancing salinity are becoming regular realities rather than isolated disasters. Bangladesh must therefore adapt in ways that prevent a single flash flood or a season of salinity from disrupting the entire food system.

But adaptation alone is not enough. Much of the crisis Bangladesh faces has been driven by carbon emissions elsewhere, particularly from industrialized countries. Haor farmers and coastal fishers have little direct responsibility for the emissions driving global warming. Countries historically responsible for the largest emissions must acknowledge their responsibility and make genuine reductions. Adaptation funds alone cannot absolve them of that responsibility.

A direct line can be drawn from submerged Boro fields in the haors to rising vegetable prices in Dhaka markets. At the end of that line is a family calculating how to afford its daily food.

Bangladesh is not facing famine, and that is reassuring. But the real test is not simply whether enough food is produced in a normal year. The test is whether every family can access sufficient and nutritious food when prices rise, floods strike, seasonal work disappears or rainfall suddenly changes– and whether those most responsible for the climate crisis take responsibility by genuinely reducing emissions.

Writer: Environmentalist, writer and organizer.