Demographic Dividend: Bangladesh Faces Mounting Challenges
A World Bank report has painted a troubling picture of Bangladesh’s demographic prospects. Its 2026 report, titled Demographic Change in South Asia: From Tailwinds to Headwinds for Development, forecasts an alarming decline in the country’s demographic dividend by the end of the next decade. The demographic dividend has played a crucial role in keeping Bangladesh’s economic engine running, even during difficult periods in the global economy. In particular, remittance flows generated by overseas employment have helped the country confront major economic challenges. Yet only a small fraction of the country’s potential working-age population has contributed to this economic progress. Had the workforce been developed into a skilled labour force and deployed effectively in domestic and international employment markets, Bangladesh could have become a trillion-dollar economy much earlier.
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s plan to transform Bangladesh into a trillion-dollar economy within the next decade, under the slogan ‘Bangladesh First’, relies fundamentally on harnessing the demographic dividend. Few had anticipated such a discouraging forecast emerging so soon. Opportunities for Bangladesh to share in the benefits of global and regional economic growth through the participation of its vast working-age population have not yet disappeared. However, the state cannot easily compensate for its failure to make the right decisions and implement them at the right time. The current generation is bearing the consequences of longstanding failures in education, public health, health education and civic services.
This situation did not emerge overnight. For more than a decade, hundreds of thousands of university graduates have been struggling for years to secure public- and private-sector jobs. Meanwhile, foreign nationals from neighbouring countries have reportedly entered Bangladesh on tourist visas, secured lucrative jobs in different sectors and siphoned off thousands of crores of dollars annually. Every year, thousands of specialist doctors graduate from the country’s medical colleges and universities and foreign institutions. Yet, despite the availability of numerous specialists in domestic hospitals, hundreds of thousands of patients travel to India annually for treatment, resulting in an outflow of hundreds of crores of dollars every year.
This indicates that universities and specialised educational institutions are failing to produce the workforce required by the country’s existing production system and service sectors. Most overseas Bangladeshi workers are employed as unskilled labourers at low wages. Had they been equipped with professional skills and employed in skilled or white-collar occupations, their remittance contributions could have more than doubled. A substantial Bangladeshi workforce is employed in Malaysia and the Middle East. Despite receiving significantly lower wages, Bangladeshi workers often face tougher working conditions because of their lack of skills and other disadvantages. The government’s failure to curb corruption among recruitment agency syndicates and reduce migration costs is largely responsible for this situation.
According to the World Bank report, 60 per cent of Bangladeshi jobseekers with graduate degrees are forced to work outside their fields of education or qualifications. This means the time and money they invest in education are failing to deliver the expected returns. Another indicator reveals that 84 per cent of the country’s working population, or 58 million workers, are employed on temporary or informal terms. Such widespread employment insecurity is creating socioeconomic instability and uncertainty. Wars and various geopolitical developments are further narrowing Bangladesh’s window of demographic opportunity. The World Bank report has brought this reality into focus. Against this backdrop, the government must immediately formulate a practical action plan to address the employment challenges ahead.
Bangladesh’s economic growth has long failed to reach its naturally expected pace. The principal reasons are inadequate investment in employment generation and the production system. With such a large unemployed population, growth of just 3-4 per cent cannot ensure the level of employment the country needs. The World Bank report also warns that the proportion of elderly people in Bangladesh could double over the next two decades. In other words, the country’s golden era of working-age population growth is approaching its end. During this critical period, Bangladesh must both harness its economic potential and strengthen its social protection system. Given the country’s existing socioeconomic and political circumstances, there is no room for mistakes in setting priorities to achieve national economic objectives while confronting geopolitical challenges.
Bangladesh has faced several unexpected crises since the July uprising. Not all of these developments are natural or spontaneous consequences of the transition. Signs of domestic and foreign conspiracies are evident behind the ongoing disorder, unrest and labour discontent in the country’s garment industry. Allies of the ousted fascist regime are seeking to exploit the situation by pushing the country towards a major economic crisis. Their traps must be avoided. Foreign agents allegedly operating under the guise of workers, labour unions and human rights organisations, as well as within the police and intelligence agencies, must be identified. The government must take fresh decisions on overseas employment security and the crises affecting the country’s education system, healthcare services and civil society. If necessary, an all-party meeting should be convened to build national unity.
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s government cannot afford to fail.
