Trump May Want to Leave, but the Middle East Will Not Let Him
The New York Times
Over the weekend, Trump said his new strategy for Iran would be brief. In an interview with Axios, he said the United States would defeat Iran through economic pressure rather than by posing a major new military threat. He argued, “We’re just watching Iran, their huge inflation and the fact that they have no money. There will be a solution to that. There’s always a solution. It’s like a chess game.” At the Oval Office on Monday, he acknowledged Iran’s ability to harass commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, saying, “Now, can they cause trouble? Yes, they can cause trouble. But they’re bankrupt.”
But a stark reminder of the limits of American power in the region came from Israel. On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he had rejected Trump’s peace plan for Gaza. Trump’s approach to the two conflicts in the Middle East, as Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, put it, highlighted Trump’s eagerness to declare success and his inability to impose his will. He added, “With the midterm elections approaching, Trump is clearly looking for a way out of all of this.” Katulis further said, “But reality is slapping him in the face.”
Analysts say Trump faces serious obstacles: dwindling weapons stockpiles; an Iranian regime determined to inflict pain on the United States; an Israeli prime minister fighting for re-election; and American voters strained by the high costs associated with the Iran war. The turmoil, they say, is increasing the political cost for Trump and Republicans ahead of the November midterm elections. Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and vice president at Brookings, said, “I don’t think the president has very good options. While the pressure points on the Iranians are real, they are more manageable and less consequential than the factors affecting the U.S. economy and the administration’s strategic calculations.”
Trump had promoted what he called a “historic breakthrough” in Gaza, announced on July 30: a multistage agreement under which Hamas would eventually disarm, and Israel would withdraw from the Palestinian enclave. He wrote in capital letters on Truth Social that it was an “INCREDIBLE BREAKTHROUGH” that everyone had said could never be achieved. But after the plan was announced, deadly Israeli bombing in Gaza intensified. On Sunday, Netanyahu, who joined Trump in the Iran war earlier this year, forcefully rejected Trump’s 15-point plan. Some analysts described the development in Gaza as another reminder of the decline of American influence in the Middle East following the Iran war.
Katulis said, “In both Iran and Israel, Trump has misread the dynamics of regional power.” He also cited a recent defense pact among Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan as a sign that countries were trying to secure their positions amid uncertainty over the future of American power in the Middle East. Even if Trump wants to withdraw, tensions with Iran could flare up again at any moment. The United States has maintained its naval blockade of shipping at Iranian ports. American military power in the region has also been reinforced, including the continued presence of two aircraft carriers. Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said, “These are not small moves. Iran is unlikely to quietly accept them.”
