Economic failure causes the fall of governments

Kamrul Hasan Darpan

The survival of any country’s government depends on economic stability. This is one of the core principles of a government’s survival. A government that can keep people’s lives comfortable and prosperous and ensure their well-being builds a strong foundation of popularity. When the opposite happens, the government’s foundation weakens. The belief takes root among the people that the government cannot run the country. People become angry and agitated. Their anger eventually turns into a movement to overthrow the government.

There are several such examples in recent years. In South Asia, the government changes in Sri Lanka in 2022 and Nepal in 2025 were largely driven by the deplorable economic conditions in those countries. As their governments failed to improve people’s economic conditions, public anger grew and movements to oust them followed. Similarly, one of the main reasons behind the fall of Ms. Sheikh Hasina in the July Uprising of 2024 was the country’s deplorable economic condition. It is clear that a government’s stability depends on how much economic progress it can deliver to its people. When it fails to do so, its fall becomes inevitable or its return to power becomes difficult.

When Ms. Hasina fell in the mass uprising, the country’s economy was in a disastrous state. During her 15-year rule, looting and money laundering turned the country into a “bottomless basket.” More than Tk 2.8 trillion was allegedly laundered during this period. This huge amount was equivalent to nearly three national budgets and almost half of the country’s total economy, estimated at around Tk 60.8 trillion. If a country loses the equivalent of three budgets or half of its economy, there is little reason to expect progress.

Although Ms. Hasina showcased major bridges and infrastructure projects as symbols of development, these could not satisfy impoverished people. People from all sections of society, frustrated by her government’s alleged looting, corruption, oppression and repression, took to the streets during the July Uprising and brought about her fall. Her fall was linked not only to misrule and oppression but also to the country’s severe economic hardship.

After her fall, the interim government led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus began its journey with the devastated economy left behind by Ms. Hasina. The government initially generated enormous public expectations. People hoped that the government, particularly Dr. Yunus, would rebuild the depleted economy and improve their living standards. There were also indications of such expectations being fulfilled. After taking office, the United States and other developed countries, along with international financial institutions, assured billions of dollars in assistance for rebuilding the economy.

However, the Yunus government could not turn those assurances into reality. It could not bring in the promised money. Instead, investment and trade became stagnant. Far from rebuilding the economy, the existing situation deteriorated further. It was often said that if the interim government could restore the economy to normal, it would not leave power easily and could remain in office for five, 10 or even more years. Such statements were also heard from Dr. Yunus and other advisers.

Why, then, could the interim government not remain in power? The simple answer is that it failed to manage the country’s economy. Domestic and foreign investment, business and trade became stagnant. Hundreds of factories closed, leaving thousands of workers unemployed. People’s incomes declined and inflation reached an extremely high level. In such an economic situation, the interim government was eventually forced to hold elections.

It is therefore clear that the survival of any government, elected or unelected, depends on how strongly it can build the economy and how much it can improve people’s lives. Even in developed countries, when the economy experiences a downturn during a government’s tenure, people often withdraw their support. The main point is that there is no alternative to income and economic progress for ordinary people. The government must deliver that progress. A government that can do so will earn public support and survive.

The BNP came to power with a two-thirds majority in the February 12 election this year. It had to begin its journey amid a fragile domestic economy and a global economic slowdown affected by the Iran war.

At the very beginning, the Iran war triggered a severe energy crisis in the country. Public life and the production sector almost came to a standstill. Although the situation gradually improved, a severe gas crisis emerged toward the end of last month. It has yet to return completely to normal.

Energy and gas are essential to both public life and the economy. Without them, everything comes to a halt. When gas is unavailable, household stoves cannot operate, cooking becomes difficult, gas-powered vehicles cannot run, industrial production stops, electricity generation falls, economic activity slows and students’ education is disrupted.

Last week, I spoke to an acquaintance who is a garment businessman. His account showed how badly the garment sector has been affected by the gas crisis. He said the main garment-producing areas are Savar, Ashulia, Gazipur and Narayanganj. Many factories in these areas have remained closed because of the gas shortage. A productive factory suffers a major loss even if it remains closed for one day. If it stays closed for days, its survival becomes difficult.

It appeared that the relevant ministry did not initially give the gas crisis sufficient importance. There was negligence. That negligence intensified the crisis. The ministry should have taken the issue seriously at least two months earlier. Even if they have become serious now, much of the damage has already been done. It will take some more time for the situation to return to normal. This is an embarrassing situation for the new government. The government should investigate whether there was any negligence by the minister or the ministry.

The gas and power sector is extremely sensitive. Any disruption in this sector can cause major damage to the government.

The garment sector was already facing lower demand from buyers in the United States and European Union because of the global recession. However, demand for the upcoming Christmas season remains. June and July are among the busiest months for the garment sector in preparing to meet that demand. A gas and electricity crisis at such a crucial time can cause a major disaster for the sector.

People generally have sympathy for a new government. Even when facing difficulties, they give a new government time and remain patient. But if a government fails to take effective initiatives and deliver visible solutions quickly, that patience eventually breaks. Anger and frustration begin to build.

This crisis should not be viewed merely as the government’s crisis. It should be viewed as a crisis for the entire country. If this government falls, people should consider what kind of situation could emerge. Therefore, the survival of this government is important for the country. The BNP government should remember that the political change of 1975 was linked not only to misrule but also to the country’s economic hardship. Sheikh Mujib’s fall followed the 1974 famine and the economic devastation caused by widespread looting by Awami League members, according to the author.

When Martyred President Ziaur Rahman later came to power, he inherited a devastated economy. From the beginning, he focused on economic recovery because he understood that no political programme could succeed unless people’s poverty and hardship were reduced. He therefore brought talented politicians and economists into his government and used their expertise to move the country toward self-reliance within a short period. It is remarkable that during only four years in power, he was able to move the country’s economy from a severely depressed condition toward prosperity.

Now the son of that Martyred President Ziaur Rahman, Tarique Rahman, has also begun his journey with an economy devastated by the previous government. In rebuilding the economy, he should follow his father’s economic and political philosophy and engage capable people to implement it.