BNP’s Local Government Election to Be Challenging

Musfiqur Rahman

After major success in the national election, the party faces an acid test at the grassroots. Political analysts believe internal problems must be resolved quickly, or they could directly affect BNP’s performance in the local government elections.

Following its major success in the national election, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is now facing a difficult test of strengthening the party ahead of the local government elections. The biggest challenges for the central leadership are internal conflicts, factionalism, leadership disputes and potential rebel candidates at the grassroots level.

Political observers believe that if these problems are not resolved quickly, they could directly affect the local government elections. According to party sources and political analysts, the divisions that emerged in various areas over nominations in the national election could become even more evident in the local government polls. This is because, in Union Parishad, municipality, upazila and city corporation elections, a candidate’s personal popularity, local influence, social ties and organizational standing play an important role alongside party affiliation. As a result, the entry of multiple candidates from the same party could lead to a division of votes.

The concerns within the BNP over the local government elections are not new. However, the party’s top leadership now considers ensuring a single candidate one of its biggest challenges. According to the party’s policymakers, local elections are not merely a contest to elect public representatives; they are also a test of party discipline, organizational capacity and grassroots unity.

Recently, BNP Acting Secretary General Ruhul Kabir Rizvi made the party’s position clear on fielding single candidates in the local government elections in a statement. He also said the party would follow a “zero tolerance” policy toward rebel candidates. The BNP has decided to contest the upcoming local government elections independently, without joining any political alliance. At the same time, the acting secretary general warned that no one would be spared for violating party discipline.

Local government elections have already gained importance at the BNP’s policymaking level. At a meeting of the party’s National Standing Committee in July, emphasis was placed on strengthening organizational activities, restructuring expired committees and selecting popular and acceptable candidates. The possibility of selecting candidates through surveys in various areas was also discussed. At the same time, emphasis is being placed on restructuring expired committees to strengthen the grassroots organization.

However, those concerned believe that the party’s position on rebel candidates in the national election could also influence the politics of the local government elections.

The electoral landscape of local government elections is quite different from that of national elections. In Union Parishad, upazila, municipality and city corporation elections, a candidate’s personal profile, local influence, social connections and long-standing organizational relationships play a major role in determining the outcome. Therefore, even if the central leadership supports a particular candidate, it could be difficult to prevent a division of the party vote if influential local leaders contest independently. This could become BNP’s biggest organizational test. That is why the central leadership is placing emphasis on ensuring a “single candidate” in local elections.

Another much-discussed issue within the BNP grassroots is the conflict between long-serving activists and relatively new entrants. Some activists who remained active during the party’s long movement and struggles allege that, following the political change, an opportunistic group is trying to establish influence within the party. Although the reality of this allegation varies from area to area, those concerned believe the issue is creating discomfort within the party.

Several leaders of BNP in Manirampur upazila of Jashore said, “Some union-level BNP leaders publicly announced their resignation from the party before August 5 and comfortably spent time with their families. But at that time, thinking about the party, we could not even think about our families. They openly opposed the party in the national election. Now, they have emerged as revolutionary leaders in the area. There are multiple videos of their announcements of leaving the party. The party’s image is being damaged because of these opportunists, which could affect the local government elections. The party should take the strongest possible action against them immediately. Then no one will dare to do such a thing in the foreseeable future. Everyone will put aside their differences and work together for the party.”

There are also reports of disputes within the BNP over the formation of committees at various grassroots levels. In some places, former leaders are dissatisfied with the committees, while in others, rival factions are engaged in disputes over posts and positions. As a result, concerns have emerged that organizational activities could be disrupted in many areas. Against this backdrop, the central leadership is, on the one hand, restructuring expired committees and, on the other, trying to reduce disputes through continuous exchanges with local-level leaders. The initiative to restructure the committees of Cumilla Metropolitan BNP and Cumilla North District BNP has also come under discussion as part of the party’s recent organizational activities.

According to political analysts, although the popularity of the central leadership and the influence of the party symbol play a greater role in national elections, a candidate’s personal acceptability is much more important in local government elections. Therefore, the local elections could reveal the BNP’s actual organizational strength at the grassroots level.

The grassroots organization is the main foundation of a political party. If leadership conflicts, personality-centered politics, a lack of organizational discipline and dissatisfaction over candidate selection persist for a long time, their negative impact could gradually spread throughout the organization. In the case of the BNP, too, if these grassroots problems are not resolved quickly, the party may have to pay a political price in the local government elections.

Following its success in the national election, the local government election will be something of an “acid test” for the BNP. If the party fails to control internal conflicts, it may prove difficult to sustain the success of the national election at the grassroots level. On the other hand, if the party can select competent, popular and acceptable candidates while controlling rebel candidates, the election results could provide new evidence of the BNP’s organizational strength.

Political analyst and researcher Mezbah-ul-Azam Soudagar, a teacher at the Department of Political Science at Jagannath University, said, “One issue is extremely important: as a result of the July Revolution, this government came to power through a transparent election. The July Revolution has raised many hopes and aspirations among the people. The current government must address them. Therefore, if the people see the current government’s party leaders and activists doing what the Awami League had done, they will become angry, and this will certainly be reflected in the election. For this reason, the BNP must first work to prevent its leaders and activists from engaging in such activities.”

Overall, the local government election is not merely a contest to elect public representatives for the BNP; it will also be a test of grassroots unity, the acceptability of its leadership and organizational discipline. If long-standing factionalism, leadership disputes, conflicts over posts and positions, and the possibility of multiple candidates are not brought under control now, this “cancer” at the grassroots level could have a major impact on the local election results.

On the other hand, if the central leadership can resolve organizational disputes in time, bring dedicated and popular leaders together, and ensure a single candidate, the same problems could be transformed from a weakness into an electoral strength for the BNP.