China’s Belt and Road Impacts 200 Countries: Declining Debt Risks,Corruption
South China Morning Post
A study spanning nearly 200 countries and more than two decades has found that China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is associated with improvements in governance, economic development and corruption control, while also reducing countries’ debt risks. The findings challenge ongoing criticism of Beijing’s global infrastructure programme. Researchers at the Asia-Pacific Development Studies Centre, led by Mao Weizhun and co-authored by Zeng Qingming of the university’s School of International Relations, examined data from 197 countries and regions between 2000 and 2023. The analysis included 146 countries that had signed Belt and Road cooperation agreements with China and 135 countries where Belt and Road infrastructure projects had been launched or completed.The research paper, titled “Measuring the Political Effects of Belt and Road Infrastructure”, was published online on July 17 in the Quarterly Journal of International Politics. The researchers concluded that the Belt and Road, particularly its infrastructure component, had helped create a long-term positive cycle linking development, infrastructure and security. They said the findings challenged descriptions of the initiative as a “failure”, “risk trap”, “corruption route” or “debt trap”.
Earlier, AidData’s 2023 research report, “Belt and Road Reboot”, analysed 20,985 Chinese-funded projects worth more than US$1.3 trillion across 165 low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2021. The report said China remained the world’s largest official source of international development finance. It also highlighted China’s efforts to manage debt repayment, environmental, social and governance-related risks. This changing lending landscape is important when assessing the findings of the Nanjing study: the reduction in country-level debt risks associated with participation in the BRI does not mean that every Chinese-funded project has been financially successful or that all BRI borrowers have avoided debt crises. The Nanjing researchers said the impact of infrastructure could extend beyond transport, energy and trade. They linked investment with improvements in development and security, saying better connectivity could reduce pressures arising from poverty, unemployment and inequality. A separate study published in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications in 2026 found similar results. Examining 161 countries between 1995 and 2022, it found that participation in the Belt and Road also contributed to improved climate-adaptation capacity.
