Discussion of Bangladesh Joining ‘Islamic NATO’ Raises Alarm in India

Bangladesh’s possible entry into a proposed defence pact with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan could give Dhaka greater leverage in its bilateral relations with India. However, analysts have warned that the move risks disrupting Bangladesh’s long-standing strategic neutrality and increasing concerns in New Delhi.

Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman told Parliament on August 27 that Bangladesh was considering joining the “Mecca Pact,” a security framework signed last month. Earlier reports, citing unnamed sources, said the invitation to join the arrangement had come directly from Riyadh. Foreign Affairs State Minister Humayun Kabir also told reporters, “If a security arrangement is established among the Islamic countries of the Middle East, it would not be unusual for us to consider participating. It is being viewed positively.”
Under the agreement signed in Mecca on August 7, an armed attack on any one member state will be considered an attack on all other members. The provision has led the pact to be informally described as an “Islamic NATO.” Shafi Md Mostafa, an associate professor at the University of Dhaka, said joining the alliance would force India to be “much more cautious and respectful” in its relations with Bangladesh.

Bilateral relations between the two countries have come under strain in recent months over former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s stay in India, the postponement of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s visit to Delhi, and ongoing border and migration disputes. However, Shafi warned that formal membership in the pact would put Bangladesh’s traditional policy of maintaining diplomatic balance under serious pressure.

Referring to practical cooperation such as technology transfers and training, he said, “Formally committing to a collective defence arrangement would be qualitatively very different from Bangladesh’s existing issue-based defence partnerships.” He added that Delhi would be deeply concerned because of Pakistan’s leading role in the alliance, given its longstanding rivalry with India.

Citing the ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon and the current instability involving Israel, Iran and the United States, Shafi said, “Joining this alliance would inevitably reduce the ambiguity that has so far allowed Bangladesh to maintain good relations simultaneously with competing powers.”
Elizabeth Roche, an associate professor of practice at the Jindal School of International Affairs at O.P. Jindal Global University, said joining a Middle Eastern security bloc could provide Bangladesh with significant “leverage” or strategic advantages.

Ms. Roche said, “(Dhaka) would have the opportunity to be seen as part of an influential alliance.” She noted that Bangladesh’s large expatriate population in the Middle East is an important economic driver. An estimated five million Bangladeshis live and work in the six Arab countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), including 2.64 million in Saudi Arabia alone.

Ms. Roche added that India is closely monitoring Bangladesh’s recent thaw in relations with Pakistan following August 2024. After Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, high-level diplomatic contacts between Dhaka and Islamabad have resumed, trade restrictions have eased, and direct maritime links have been established for the first time since 1971.

Sohini Bose, an associate fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, said the idea of joining the alliance aligns with the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) historic policy of Islamic solidarity. Bose said, “Under the current circumstances, this move would give the country an opportunity to develop an alternative identity beyond its traditional geopolitical relationships with India, China or the United States.” However, she questioned whether Bangladesh, which is recovering from severe domestic economic challenges including high inflation, declining exports and an investment shortage, would realistically be able to fulfil collective defence responsibilities.

Referring to the Bay of Bengal and India’s eastern border region as areas that New Delhi considers its “primary sphere of interest,” Bose warned, “Before making any commitments, a realistic assessment of the country’s internal capabilities and development aspirations is necessary.” She noted that the military pact could bring Pakistan closer to India’s eastern border.

Syed Munir Khasru, chairman of the international think tank IPAG Asia-Pacific, said regional instability and disruptions to oil trade near the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted Bangladesh’s need for stronger security arrangements. Mr. Khasru said, “As the world’s third-largest Muslim-majority country by population, Bangladesh’s entry into the organisation would give the alliance greater geopolitical and strategic significance.”
While Saudi Arabia is a key pillar of Bangladesh’s remittance economy, Turkey has emerged as a major defence partner, providing military equipment and training. He added that Bangladesh, as the second-largest contributor of troops to UN peacekeeping missions, could contribute its own institutional experience to the alliance rather than merely benefiting from its support.

However, Khasru believes Dhaka must carefully balance its strategic opportunities against the risk of facing external hostility. He said, “The main objective should be to create additional strategic options without becoming part of any hostility that does not serve Bangladesh’s national interests or creating new risks.”

Source: South China Morning Post Report