How Iran Adapted Its War Strategy as U.S. War Munitions Dwindled
The New York Times
During five days of intense attacks last month, Iran launched waves of drone and missile strikes against U.S. troops at three bases in Jordan, seeking to overwhelm American air defense systems. Using advanced missiles capable of suddenly changing course, Iran heavily struck the defensive systems and forced U.S. forces to expend their scarce Patriot interceptors. On the fifth day, Iran breached the defensive systems and a missile struck a housing unit at one of the bases, killing three U.S. service members and injuring more than 100 others. Pentagon officials later acknowledged that many more troops were wounded in the attacks carried out in Jordan that week and that several aircraft were damaged.
The attacks revealed two parallel trends: Iran has become a more capable adversary, learning to evade U.S. air defenses, while simultaneously expanding the battlefield across the Middle East and incorporating allies such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen and insurgent groups in Iraq. Meanwhile, the Pentagon’s stockpile of interceptors has rapidly declined. According to two people familiar with the size of America’s weapons stockpiles, the Pentagon has used more than 1,500 Patriot interceptors and has fewer than 1,700 remaining. On one day that week alone, U.S. forces fired nearly 50 Patriots, each costing about $4 million. The depletion demonstrates how even a global superpower with enormous military strength can face challenges from a weaker adversary using asymmetric warfare tactics.
Seth G. Jones, chairman of the defense and security department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Russia used a combination of ballistic and cruise missiles to confuse air defenses before sending drones into Ukraine. “When different types of missiles and drones are coming in, Iran makes the situation more difficult for air defense systems,” he said. Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, said, “Tehran had been waiting for this moment since the conflict began more than five months ago.” During a 12-day war in June 2025, Iranian leaders had seen how quickly Israeli and U.S. forces exhausted their interceptors.
The new reality has geopolitical consequences. Two weeks ago, Trump halted the bombing after Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar called for diplomatic talks with Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman warned that major airstrikes could prompt Iran to retaliate against energy facilities and infrastructure. Iran has also changed its tactics elsewhere. In April, it used shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles to shoot down a U.S. F-15E aircraft over southern Iran. U.S. officials said Iran had learned from Ukraine by deploying swarms of drones in areas where American warplanes had penetrated.
When Houthi rebels entered the war last month, experts said it indicated Iran’s intention to force the United States and its allies to defend themselves against air attacks coming from multiple directions. Even during the pauses in fighting, Iran’s strategy continued to evolve. When Houthi militias entered the war last month, experts said it indicated Iran’s intention to force the United States and its allies to defend themselves against air attacks from all directions. Even during the pauses in fighting, Iran’s strategy continued to change. Two U.S. military officials said they needed time to adapt to Iran’s new tactics.
