62,000 jobs lost in eight months
The economy saw some positive changes during the first six months of the new government, but overall negative trends remain more prominent, according to the private research organisation Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). According to the research organisation, the government’s revenue shortfall could reach Tk 1.30 lakh crore to Tk 1.40 lakh crore in the current fiscal year. Meanwhile, between January and August, 95 factories in the country’s three major industrial zones permanently shut down, resulting in the loss of employment for 61,881 people.
The information was presented yesterday at a dialogue organised by the CPD titled ‘First six months of the new government—an economic review’. CPD Distinguished Fellow Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya said the economy was facing various structural problems when the government took office, while the global situation was also unfavourable. However, as the government did not prepare an integrated document on the situation of the economy when it took charge, it is now difficult to assess various measures and economic progress.
He said there were two major expectations from the new government—economic recovery and establishment of good governance. There were expectations that the economy would recover by controlling inflation and increasing investment and employment, but some discomfort has emerged in this regard. The government inherited some structural problems. The global situation was also not very positive when the government took office. Therefore, there is no doubt that the economy’s recovery trend was in a weak position.
According to the CPD report, the government’s total revenue target for the current fiscal year is Tk 6.95 lakh crore. Achieving this target will require revenue growth of around 42 percent. However, considering the actual situation, the CPD fears that the revenue shortfall could reach Tk 1.30 lakh crore to Tk 1.40 lakh crore. This shortfall would be around 19–20 percent of the government’s annual revenue target. The National Board of Revenue’s revenue growth has declined from 12.4 percent to 11.1 percent. Growth in total tax revenue has fallen from 12.3 percent to just 4.9 percent.
At the same time, the government’s dependence on borrowing from banks has increased from 48 percent to 53.8 percent. Net foreign assistance has also declined from $771.4 million to $734.3 million. The situation in the industrial sector is even more concerning, the CPD said. During January-August 2026, 95 factories permanently shut down in the industrial zones of Gazipur, Savar-Ashulia and Narayanganj-Narsingdi. The closure of these factories resulted in the direct loss of employment for 61,881 people. Industrial production growth has declined from 3.4 percent to zero. Growth in the manufacturing sector has also fallen from 3.5 percent to zero. Private-sector credit growth has declined from 6 percent to 4.5 percent. Net foreign investment has fallen from $662 million to $594 million. Growth in opening letters of credit for imports of capital machinery has declined from 14.6 percent to negative 13.6 percent.
The CPD said a prolonged gas crisis had emerged due to technical problems at the LNG terminal in Maheshkhali, complications in procuring LNG and problems in receiving cargoes. As a result, gas-dependent industries including textiles, steel, paper, particleboard and ceramics have been affected. Industrial gas consumption has declined from 1,186 MMCF to 1,148 MMCF. Growth in the electricity generation index has also declined from 5.6 percent to negative 0.1 percent.
The CPD said there has been some improvement in inflation, but complete relief has not returned for ordinary people. Overall inflation has declined from 9.1 percent to 8.3 percent. Food inflation has fallen from 9.3 percent to 7.2 percent. Although the wage growth rate increased from 8.1 percent to 8.2 percent, real wage growth remains negative. Export growth improved from negative 3.2 percent to 3.5 percent. In contrast, import growth increased from 5.6 percent to 18.1 percent. Remittance growth declined from 21.4 percent to 11.8 percent. Average monthly overseas employment also declined from 95,521 to 51,235.
The trade deficit increased from $6.7 billion to $10.4 billion. The current account surplus of $1.3 billion turned into a deficit of $600 million. However, foreign exchange reserves increased from $30.1 billion to $32.3 billion. The CPD’s assessment also identified some government measures as positive. These include increasing the tax-free income threshold for individual taxpayers, withdrawing the proposal to legalise undisclosed money, expanding e-returns and digital income tax systems, and extending bonded warehouse facilities to export-oriented industries outside the RMG sector. Other positive initiatives include signing a CEPA with South Korea, launching ‘Invest Bangladesh’ by merging BIDA, BEZA and PPPA, establishing a startup fund, providing a 25 percent discount on metro and train fares for people aged 65 and above, waiving loans and interest of up to Tk 10,000 under agricultural loans, and launching the women-operated ‘Pink Bus Service’.
