Trump’s Wars Fuel Xi’s Rising Influence as China Hosts Summit With Russia, India and Iran

As US President Donald Trump seeks to reassert Washington’s central role in global politics through military pressure and confrontation, the gathering of top leaders from China, Russia, India, Iran and other countries at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on Monday has highlighted the growing influence of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The meeting also demonstrated Beijing’s ability to maintain close ties with countries facing pressure from Washington. The wars in Russia and Iran have increased geopolitical instability, weakened global economic growth and contributed to inflation. The crises have also provided Mr. Xi with greater room to expand China’s influence, as demonstrated by the Bishkek summit. China has played an important role in supporting both Russia and Iran.
As the world’s largest importer of crude oil and a major exporter of consumer goods, Beijing has used its economic position to weaken efforts by the United States and its allies to impose economic pressure on Moscow and Tehran. Last month, Mr. Xi rejected Mr. Trump’s threat of an “economic D-Day” against countries supporting Iran. Mr. Trump has issued similar threats against buyers of Russian oil but has taken no significant action against Beijing.

Julian Gewirtz, a former senior director for China and Taiwan on the National Security Council during the Biden administration, said Mr. Trump has faced a fundamental credibility problem with Mr. Xi over the past year. “Both his threats and assurances appear to Beijing to be written in pencil,” Mr. Gewirtz said, describing how Mr. Xi views Donald Trump’s approach.

Mr. Xi has sought to strengthen his image as a leader of countries outside the Western sphere and challenge what he describes as US dominance. At a time when Washington is alienating many of its allies, Mr. Xi appears to see an opportunity to demonstrate that China has both friends and alternatives around the world, Mr. Gewirtz said.
The summit also exposed the limitations of what some countries view as America-led military policies. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, both attending the meeting, have sought to counter Western isolation while maintaining close relations with Beijing. China has previously declined to deploy its military to defend either Russia or Iran, including Iran after it joined the SCO in 2023. Instead, Beijing has consistently called for dialogue and diplomatic solutions.

At the same time, China has sought to expand trade and provide technology that can potentially be used on the battlefield. In mid-August, a Chinese container ship made its first scheduled voyage through the Northern Sea Route. Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin subsequently discussed bilateral relations, visa-free travel and cooperation in the Arctic. The SCO expanded in 2017 with the admission of India and Pakistan. Belarus and Iran were later added, further strengthening the organization as a potential counterweight to Western-led alliances. China is now the largest importer of crude oil from both Russia and Iran. Western sanctions have also allowed Beijing to increase its purchases of discounted Russian oil.

During the summit, Mr. Xi told Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov that relations between the two countries had “advanced by leaps and bounds,” with cooperation expanding across all areas. Meanwhile, when Mr. Xi makes his planned visit to the United States, Mr. Trump may seek China’s cooperation on Iran and North Korea. Referring to tensions within the Trump administration between its campaign to pressure Iran and the ceasefire maintained with Chinese mediation, Mr. Gewirtz said, “Mr. Trump has boxed himself into a corner.”

The Bishkek summit therefore underscores China’s expanding diplomatic and economic influence at a time when global conflicts and tensions are reshaping international alliances and challenging the traditional dominance of Washington.